December 8,2013 would surely go down in the history as the day marking the stunning debut by Aam Aadmi Party, as the elections results to the Legislative Assemblies of four states were being declared. The results of the fifth state were declared a day later. Even a person living under a rock would notice two things: one, the change in the expectations of the electorate from the political class and two, the way they are exercising their rights to express these expectations.
Glued to the television the entire day this Sunday and going through the newspaper reports related to election results, I found some interesting facts which apparently seem disconnected but if examined in depth, are quite coupled and would show a clear trend.
Take note of the following facts:
1) That Congress was brutally decimated in Rajasthan is no more a news. What is news, infact, is that out of 15 Muslim candidates fielded by the Congress, not even one managed to win. Out of 4 fielded by BJP, just 2 won. And hence, in a 200 member Legislative Assembly of Rajasthan, this minority community is represented by only two candidates. What are we to make out of this?!Well, it is surprising that there has been a deep division and polarization of the minority votes and they are not going by the popular secular/ non-secular rhetoric only. People are judging the performance of the government by what they see on ground. Gopalgarh riots may have very well been a major reason behind such a mandate by the people.
2) Now come to Mizoram where Congress has been voted for the second time. Mizoram has a history of giving every govt. two chances in a row. So, the result was almost expected. Also, the administration of Mizoram by Congress has been quite good. If you notice, whenever Congress has been voted for power in Mizoram, coincidentally, the same govt was ruling at the Centre too. This helped the state govt to get funds more easily and concentrate more on development. But what is surprising is that inspite of Mizoram being a state divided by tribal identities and Mizo National Front enjoying a tremendous support base, people still voted for Congress. It shows that the politics of caste, region, religion (basically parochialism) is on a decline, where people genuinely respect good governance.
3) Final results showed that AAP's share of seats was much more than that predicted by most of the exit poll results. One obvious reason seemed to be that many young people came out to vote and the loyalties of the young and the first time voters are hardly tied to any political party. Also their minds are most impressionable by the 'idealism', the kind that AAP campaigning showed. What was surprising was, that AAP was voted for by almost all the strata of Delhi society and people of almost all the age groups. This clearly suggests that the faith of traditional voters of traditional political parties has shaken and they are quite willing to see a change in the way politics works.
4) Going by the results of all the states combined, in more than 60% of the constituencies, the third highest number of votes went to NOTA (None Of The Above) option. It is surprising because it suggests that many people who were disenchanted by the respective govts. took the pains of coming out of their homes and registering their dissent. It also shows that had they been given a more promising option, they wouldn’t have mind to vote for this alternate option and give them a chance to govern the state.
My only conclusion out of the above four points is that, the argument that some areas being 'strongholds' of some candidates/party and some sections of the society being 'loyals' of one particular candidate/party has been withering. People, anywhere and everywhere are looking for a strong alternative to misgovernance and this goes quite in favour of parties like AAP who are ideologically based on cleaning the system and providing good governance. How far will they be able to do it is for time to tell. But to transform themselves to a national force, this trend tilts quite in their favour provided they strategize in a right way. It also suggests that our democracy is maturing and it is no more an easy job to befool people by tall promises and hollow performances. The change is welcome!!
